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Expansionary fiscal contraction
The Expansionary Fiscal Contraction (EFC) hypothesis predicts that, under certain limited circumstances, a major reduction in government spending that changes future expectations about taxes and government spending will expand private consumption, resulting in overall economic expansion. This hypothesis was introduced by Francesco Giavazzi and Marco Pagano in 1990 in a paper that used the fiscal restructurings of Denmark and Ireland in the 1980s as examples.
The concept that fiscal contraction can result in growth is commonly known as "expansionary austerity".
==Theoretical basis==
The authors describe this as the "German view" of budget-cutting. The German view also includes the more traditional assumption that reducing government expenditures as a percent of GDP will lessen crowding out, making "room for the private sector to expand"〔 which only operates when the economy is near full employment. The authors also did not provide a model for EFC but rather described conditions under which it was observed in Denmark from 1983–84 and Ireland from 1987–89, a period when the world was undergoing rapid interest rate declines and world wide growth. These conditions included a significant currency devaluation prior to assuming a peg against a stable currency (Germany in Denmark's case), budget improvement through significant tax increases and spending cuts and sufficient liquidity that current disposable income did not constrain consumption. The authors stated that when current disposable income constrained consumption, "Keynesian textbook propositions seem to recover their predictive power, as witnessed by the 7% drop in real consumption in 1982 during the first Irish stabilization."
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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